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PRODID:UW-Madison-Physics-Events
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SEQUENCE:0
UID:UW-Physics-Event-3873
DTSTART:20160304T213000Z
DTEND:20160304T223000Z
DTSTAMP:20260419T145058Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20160229T182616Z
LOCATION:2241 Chamberlin Hall
SUMMARY:Understanding when we can trust climate models: Characterizing
  uncertainty in climate change from global to regional scales\, Physic
 s Department Colloquium\, Chris E. Forest\, Penn State
DESCRIPTION:Uncertainty in regional climate predictions is a critical 
 component of understanding risks of future climate impacts. Unfortunat
 ely\, while State-of-the-science Earth System Models show consistency 
 with observations at global and hemispheric scales\, they show limited
  skill in reproducing climate change at sub-continental and smaller sc
 ales (i.e.\, regional scales) despite their ability detect and attribu
 te climate change at global to continental scales.  Significant intern
 al/chaotic climate variability is one reason for this lack of skill. S
 tructural uncertainty in modeling the physical climate system is an ad
 ditional issue. Uncertainty in the centennial timescale trajectory of 
 greenhouse gases and other factors impacting long-term changes is yet 
 another component.   In this talk\, we will discuss components in clim
 ate models that lead to these uncertainties with a focus on basic phys
 ical processes related to both global and regional climate change.  
URL:https://www.physics.wisc.edu/events/?id=3873
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