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SEQUENCE:0
UID:UW-Physics-Event-5209
DTSTART:20191119T180500Z
DTEND:20191119T190000Z
DTSTAMP:20260415T061030Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20190923T190820Z
LOCATION:4274 Chamberlin (refreshments will be served)
SUMMARY:Will global precipitation trends be observable in our lifetime
 ?\, Chaos & Complex Systems Seminar\, Tristan L'Ecuyer\, UW Department
  of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
DESCRIPTION:Simple energy balance arguments indicate that warming from
  human activities is likely to cause an increase in worldwide precipit
 ation but it is very unlikely that these changes will be felt uniforml
 y around the globe. Climate models indicate\, for example\, that in a 
 warmer climate “the wet will get wetter and the dry will get drierâ€
 ť – in other words\, rainfall is expected to increase in areas that 
 already receive above average rainfall while arid regions may become e
 ven drier.  Most predictive models also suggest that\, as global tempe
 ratures rise\, the frequency and amount of snowfall in the middle lati
 tudes (where a large fraction of the world’s population resides) wil
 l decrease\, impacting water availability in areas that depend critica
 lly on runoff from winter snow packs. These changes could have signifi
 cant (and often undesirable) consequences that may require substantial
  investment to mitigate but developing cost-effective strategies for c
 oping with changing global precipitation patterns must be based on rel
 iable forecasts.  Given the transient nature of precipitation\, howeve
 r\, evaluating precipitation changes in climate models using the snaps
 hots provided by Earth-observing satellites is a very challenging prob
 lem.  This presentation will outline a robust statistical method for a
 ssessing how long it will take for predicted rain and snowfall trends 
 to emerge from natural year-to-year variations and\, therefore\, becom
 e testable with satellite data records. Utilizing this new strategy\, 
 we will reveal a surprisingly robust climate change metric that may be
  observable by the middle of the next decade.
URL:https://www.physics.wisc.edu/events/?id=5209
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