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VERSION:2.0
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
PRODID:UW-Madison-Physics-Events
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SEQUENCE:3
UID:UW-Physics-Event-7926
DTSTART:20221018T210000Z
DTEND:20221018T220000Z
DTSTAMP:20260414T071526Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20221018T165449Z
LOCATION:Chamberlin 5280
SUMMARY:Statistical significances and projections for proton decay exp
 eriments\, Theory Seminar (High Energy/Cosmology)\, Prudhvi Bhattiprol
 u\, University of Michigan
DESCRIPTION:The projected discovery and exclusion capabilities of part
 icle physics and astrophysics/cosmology experiments are often quantifi
 ed using the median expected significance. We argue that this criterio
 n leads to flawed results\, which for example can counterintuitively p
 roject lessened sensitivities if the experiment takes more data or red
 uces its background. We advocate for standard use of the “exact Asim
 ov” criterion detailed in this talk. Various counterintuitive flaws 
 associated with frequentist and modified frequentist statistical measu
 res of significance for multi-channel counting experiments are discuss
 ed in a general context and illustrated with examples. We argue in fav
 or of conservative Bayesian-motivated statistical measures\, and as an
  application we employ these measures to obtain the current lower limi
 ts on proton partial lifetime at various confidence levels\, based on 
 Super-Kamiokande's data\, generalizing the 90% CL published limits. Fi
 nally\, we present projections for exclusion and discovery reaches for
  proton partial lifetimes in p → ν K+ and  p → e+ π0 decay chann
 els at Hyper-Kamiokande\, DUNE and JUNO.
URL:https://www.physics.wisc.edu/events/?id=7926
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